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This chapter aims at shedding light upon how transforming or detrending a series can substantially impact predictions of mixed causal-noncausal (MAR) models, namely dynamic processes that depend not only on their lags but also on their leads. MAR models have been successfully implemented on commodity prices as they allow to generate nonlinear features such as locally explosive episodes (denoted here as bubbles) in a strictly stationary setting. The authors consider multiple detrending methods and investigate, using Monte Carlo simulations, to what extent they preserve the bubble patterns observed in the raw data. MAR models relies on the dynamics observed in the series alone and does not require economical background to construct a structural model, which can sometimes be intricate to specify or which may lack parsimony. The authors investigate oil prices and estimate probabilities of crashes before and during the first 2020 wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors consider three different mechanical detrending methods and compare them to a detrending performed using the level of strategic petroleum reserves.

Since the 1980s, governments worldwide have been implementing the move from cash to accrual accounting. Scholars initially considered the appropriateness of this accounting reform to be self-evident, but later they have expressed critical views. This paper systematises the existing literature intending to reflect on the adverse effects of adopting accrual accounting in the public sector and identify implications for future research.

The present study builds on a systematic literature review of 106 academic articles published between 1980 and 2021. It is based on the “preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses” (PRISMA) method. Synthesising research through a transparent, rigorous and replicable process makes it possible to identify and discuss the adverse effects of adopting public sector accrual accounting.

Significant issues are linked to organisational impacts and accountability. Resistance to change is the main negative consequence and is more likely in countries that have chosen to adopt accrual accounting without maintaining cash accounting. The new accounting rules make accounting information more complex and arbitrary for citizens and politicians. How these criticalities should be addressed deserves further investigation.

This paper offers a comprehensive literature review on the drawbacks of adopting accrual accounting in the public sector. It could provide a general lesson to be applied to policymakers of other jurisdictions currently considering this transition to prevent the adverse effects and act proactively.